The HDB resale market slowed down drastically in 4Q 2024.
Transaction volume of resale flats fell to an estimated 6,314 in 4Q 2024, down 22.5% from the previous three months and 3.6% lower than a year ago. It is the lowest quarterly sales since the circuit breaker in 2Q 2020. It is the lowest fourth quarter sales since 2018.
For the whole year, the resale volume was 28,876 flats, 8.0% higher than the same period in 2023.
Several factors culminated in the quieter market in 4Q 2024.
HDB launched the largest BTO exercise in Oct 2024 with more than 8,500 flats for sale. It attracted more than 35,000 applicants. There were almost 10,000 applicants vying for the flats in Bukit Batok and Sengkang which had a shorter waiting time.
In Feb 2025, HDB will launch its largest SBF exercise ever, offering more than 5,500 flats across various towns. Some prospective resale flat buyers had decided to wait to try their luck.
The year-end holiday season may be another reason for the lower volume in the HDB resale market.
Table 1: Transaction Volume of HDB Resale Flats in 4Q 2024
| 1Q 2024 | 2Q 2024 | 3Q 2024 | 4Q 2024* | Change | |
| 3-room | 1,719 | 1,854 | 1,999 | 1,440 | -28.0% |
| 4-room | 3,056 | 3,144 | 3,514 | 2,557 | -27.2% |
| 5-room | 1,639 | 1,657 | 1,887 | 1,357 | -28.1% |
| Executive/Multi-Gen | 445 | 473 | 505 | 363 | -28.1% |
| Total | 6,859 | 7,128 | 7,905 | 5,717 | -27.7% |
* Based on caveats and may differ from actual numbers
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics as of 31 Dec 2024
Prices of HDB resale flats rose by a smaller quantum in 4Q 2024 by 2.5%, compared to 2.7% in 3Q 2024. In 2024, prices of HDB resale flats jumped by 9.6%, much higher than the gains of 4.9% for the whole of 2023.
The smaller number of million-dollar flat transactions may have contributed to the smaller gains in prices in 4Q 2024.
Table 2: Change in Average Prices of HDB Resale Flats in 4Q 2024
| 3Q 2024* | Change (3Q 2024*) | 4Q 2024* | Change (4Q 2024*) | |
| 3-room | $446,830 | 2.8% | $453,996 | 1.6% |
| 4-room | $638,566 | 3.5% | $651,476 | 2.0% |
| 5-room | $734,302 | 1.5% | $753,203 | 2.6% |
| Executive/Multi-Gen | $887,923 | 2.4% | $890,379 | 2.8% |
| Total | $629,816 | 2.9% | $641,050 | 1.8% |
* Based on caveats and may differ from actual numbers
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics as of 31 Dec 2024
Million-dollar flats
The number of million-dollar flat transactions tapered off in 4Q 2024.
An estimated 270 HDB resale flats were sold for $1 million and above in 4Q 2024, 18.4% lower than the previous quarter. There was a total of 1,020 million-dollar flats in 2024, 117.0% higher than the 470 such transactions in 2023.
The interest rate cut by the US FED meant a lower borrowing cost and higher loan quantum for buyers. Some buyers may have explored buying either a condominium or executive condominium in 4Q 2024.
More than 90% of the million-dollar flats in 4Q 2024 are in the mature estates. This may be due to buyers looking for flats in better locations. The Toa Payoh estate had the highest number of million-dollar flats at 55, followed by Bukit Merah at 37 and Kallang/Whampoa at 33.
Toa Payoh has the highest number of million-dollar flats due to flats in Bidadari fulfilling the 5-year MOP in recent months.
Million-dollar flats made up more than 4% of islandwide market volume in 4Q 2024. However, towns in central locations like Bishan, Bukit Merah, Bukit Timah, Central Area, Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown and Toa Payoh had a higher proportion.
Figure 1: Proportion of million-dollar flats across HDB towns in 4Q 2024
* Based on caveats and may differ from actual numbers
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics as of 31 Dec 2024
Outlook
The HDB resale market is poised for further gains in 2025.
Due to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the construction industry almost ground to a halt. That affected the delivery of flats to buyers and reduced the number of completed flats to a low of 6,974 units.
With a 5-year MOP, this supply of 6,974 flats in 2025 is the lowest in 10 years. In comparison, an estimated 8,443 flats fulfilled their MOP in 2015.
The supply of BTO flats in 2025 will further reduce to 17,290, 12% lower than 2024. As there is no upfront information on the BTO projects with a shorter waiting time, buyers are likely to go to the resale market.
Interest rates may potentially go lower in 2025. This will give buyers a bigger loan amount to buy their property. Some buyers may set their sight on either an EC or a resale condo. The million-dollar flat market may possibly stabilise in the range of 900 to 1,200 units in 2025.
Taking into account the various factors at play, HDB resale flat transactions are estimated to be between 26,000 to 28,000 while resale flat prices are likely to grow at a slower pace of 5% to 8% in 2025.
