Huttons’ comments on HDB 1Q 2024’s flash estimates

1 April 2024

The HDB resale market saw brisk activities in 1Q 2024 as buyers returned after the year-end lull. Transaction volume of resale HDB flats was 6,928 units, 5.5% higher than year-on-year. It led to a faster pace of growth in prices as well. HDB resale prices grew 1.7% in 1Q 2024, faster than the 1.1% price gains in 4Q 2023.

There was an increase in the supply of HDB resale flats for sale in 1Q 2024 due to the large number of flats that reached their 5-year minimum occupation period in 2022 and 2023. Buyers had more choices and that resulted in higher sales.

In Jan 2024, the first wave of ex-private property owners who were observing the 15-month wait out period to buy 5-room and larger flats entered the market. Based on caveats lodged, the volume of 5-room and larger flats in 1Q 2024 were higher than 4Q 2023 by almost 10%.

Table 1: Transaction Volume of HDB Resale Flats in 1Q 2024

3Q 2023 4Q 2023 1Q 2024* Change
3-room 1,653 1,633 1,608 -1.50%
4-room 2,932 2,901 2,875 -0.90%
5-room 1,532 1,435 1,573 9.60%
Executive/Multi-Gen 390 386 427 10.60%
Total 6,507 6,355 6,483 2.00%

* Based on caveats and may differ from actual numbers
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics as of 1 Apr 2024

The stronger demand for 5-room and larger flats and the record number of million-dollar flats in 1Q 2024 saw their prices appreciate by a faster pace and pushed up the overall prices of resale flats.

Table 2: Change in Average Prices of HDB Resale Flats in 1Q 2024

Change (4Q 2023) 4Q 2023 1Q 2024* Change (1Q 2024*)
3-room 0.60% $415,488 $422,512 1.70%
4-room 0.70% $594,296 $601,302 1.20%
5-room 0.60% $693,881 $703,089 1.30%
Executive/Multi-Gen 0.30% $839,651 $855,476 1.90%
Total 0.40% $586,179 $598,394 2.10%

* Based on caveats and may differ from actual numbers
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics as of 1 Apr 2024

There was a record number of million-dollar flats sold in 1Q 2024. Based on data.gov.sg, 178 HDB resale flats were sold for a million dollars and more. This is 32.8% higher quarter-on-quarter and 72.8% higher year-on-year.

Two 5-room flats at a DBSS project in Toa Payoh were sold for more than $1.5 million in Jan 2024, making it the first time a HDB resale flat has broken the $1.5 million price tag.

The top 3 HDB towns with the greatest number of million-dollar flats in 1Q 2024 were Toa Payoh (26), Kallang/Whampoa (22), Bukit Merah and Queenstown (20 each).

In the next few months, the HDB resale market may see more transactions. Unsuccessful applicants for the sole Sale of Balance Flats exercise in 2024 may turn to the resale market. There will be more mass market launches for the rest of 2024 and HDB upgraders might sell their flats so that they do not need to pay ABSD.

HDB resale volume is estimated to be between 25,000 to 27,000 flats while resale flat prices are likely to stabilise in the range of 3% to 5% in 2024.